Friday, May 31, 2013

Has the shine come off emerging markets?

We continue to expect a cyclical recovery in emerging markets, but it is proving to be hard work.  Softer than expected domestic demand and still weak demand for emerging market exports from the key developed economies is hampering a more robust recovery.  That is in turn highlighting some key structural constraints to continued high and sustainable growth. 

However, we still expect emerging markets to post average growth of 5.4% in 2013, well in excess of the 1.3% we expect from developed economies.  Furthermore, it is still our expectation that looking further ahead, emerging markets can still be relied on to account for around two thirds of global growth over the next decade.  But necessary structural reform remains an essential part of that equation.  In short, the shine hasn’t come off emerging markets, but a bit of structural polishing wouldn’t go amiss.

For the full report, including country specific commentary on China, India, Brazil and Russia, click here.